Ethiopia, often described as a wolf in sheep’s clothing, has long presented itself to the world opinion as a friendly neighbor and a supporter of stability in the Horn of Africa. However, its actions tell a different story, one that is driven by an expansionist mentality that seeks to infiltrate Somalia’s internal affairs under the guise of peacekeeping and regional stability cooperation. The Somali government, under President Hassan, has found itself entangled in a series of controversial deals, with Ethiopia playing a central role in shaping these agreements. Though seemingly beneficial, these deals often come with hidden agendas, putting Somalia’s future friendship, sovereignty, and stability at risk.
Ethiopia’s Diplomatic Deception of the Ankara Treaty as a Trojan Horse
One of the most significant recent developments is the bilateral agreement signed between Somalia and Ethiopia in Ankara, mediated by Turkey. The treaty, on the surface, in the short term, aims to normalize the strained relations between the two countries, improving reciprocal respect and fostering a better neighborhood relationship. The agreement suggests in the long-term that once better relations improve, the two nations should consider entering into a commercial treaty. While this might seem like a step toward effective future cooperation, the content of the treaty reveals Ethiopia’s true intentions, which are far from benevolent.
Ethiopia’s engagement in Somalia’s internal affairs is not a new development. Its military presence as part of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) has been accepted as legitimate by the United Nations, which provides Ethiopia with a cover to interfere in Somalia’s domestic politics. The presence of Ethiopian forces is framed as a peacekeeping mission, but Ethiopia’s actions have been anything but peaceful. The reality is that Ethiopia has used its military involvement as a means to control Somalia’s internal dynamics and advance its own strategic interests. This diplomatic fake has allowed Ethiopia to establish a foothold in Somalia, which it uses to manipulate Somali politics and weaken the country from within.
The Dark History of Ethiopian Hegemony and Ethiopia’s Military Presence as a Double-Edged Sword
The history of Ethiopian intervention in Somalia is one filled with violence, destruction, and betrayal. The 2006 Ethiopian invasion of Somalia is a stark reminder of Ethiopia’s long-standing desire to exert control over its southeastern neighbor. Under the pretext of fighting against Islamist militants who had taken control of Somalia, Ethiopia launched an invasion with the support of the United States. The Ethiopian military’s real agenda, however, was revenge, retaliating for the losses incurred by Ethiopia during the 1977 Somali-West War.
During this period, Ethiopian forces were responsible for significant atrocities, including the deaths of approximately 50,000 Somali civilians and the displacement of millions of Mogadishu inhabitants alone. The Ethiopian forces’ brutality was not limited to military engagements; it extended to targeting intellectuals, military experts, and politicians who were seen as threats to Ethiopia’s hegemonic ambitions. The killings of civilians, destruction of property, rampant looting, and the deliberate targeting of intellectuals and political figures opposed to Ethiopian interests left deep scars on Somalia. These actions underscored Ethiopia’s long-term objective of dominating Somalia, not as a partner but as a subjugated state. In this invasion, Ethiopia was granted approval by the international community to intervene in Somalia’s internal affairs, which allowed it to implement its own political agenda, ultimately weakening Somalia’s sovereignty, and stability, and severing dividing the country along clan lines.
This tragic period in Somali history has left deep scars, with many Somalis still harboring strong resentment toward Ethiopia for its role in the destruction of their country and the loss of their loved ones. The Somali people, particularly those who lived through the Ethiopian invasion, are unlikely to forget the suffering caused by Ethiopian forces. For many, the idea of engaging in a deeper partnership with Ethiopia, particularly over strategic resources like the Somali coastline, is a denunciation of national pride and sovereignty, and rewarding Ethiopia for the massacres done to the Somali civilians.
Through successive Somali transitional governments, Ethiopia maintained influence by dictating key appointments and marginalizing officials who opposed its hegemony. This manipulation allowed Ethiopia to consolidate control over Somali politics, further entrenching its dominance over the region. These historical actions serve as a stark reminder of Ethiopia’s ambitions and the lengths it is willing to go to achieve them.
The Threat of Ethiopia’s Expansionist Mentality and The Risks of Allowing Ethiopia Access to Somali Ports
As Somalia’s relations with Ethiopia continue to evolve, the potential for Ethiopia to exert further control over Somali territory remains a serious concern. One of the most contentious issues is Ethiopia’s desire to gain access to Somalia’s Red Sea coastline. Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has long sought access to the Red Sea, which it views as a critical strategic resource. This desire has led Ethiopia to attempt to secure control over ports and maritime routes in Somalia, a move that would severely damage both citizens’ trust and undermine Somalia’s sovereignty.
The recent agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia has raised fears that Somalia’s government, under President Hassan, might be willing to entertain Ethiopia’s expansionist goals, particularly concerning its access to the Red Sea. Some members of President Hassan’s inner circle, believed to be sympathetic to Ethiopian interests, are reportedly attempting to portray the agreement as a final arrangement that immediately would allow Ethiopia to secure a foothold in Somali ports. Such a move would be disastrous for Somalia, as it would not only threaten national sovereignty but also fuel anti-Ethiopian sentiment among the Somali population, particularly those in Mogadishu who were directly affected by the Ethiopian invasion.
Should President Hassan’s government decide to proceed with such an arrangement, it could lead to widespread unrest in Mogadishu. The Somali people, particularly those in Mogadishu who remember the atrocities committed by Ethiopian forces, are unlikely to accept such a decision without a fight. The backlash could lead to protests, insurgencies, mob revolts, and further destabilization of the Somali government, which is already facing significant challenges in maintaining control over the country.
A Web of Conflicting Deals and The Role of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
The situation is made even more complicated by President Hassan’s engagement in multiple, often conflicting, agreements with different regional powers. In addition to Ethiopia, President Hassan has also entered into deals with countries like Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti, Kenya, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Turkey, all of which have competing interests in the region. This complex web of agreements is a recipe for disaster, as each of these countries pursues its own agenda, often at odds with one another. The result is a chaotic diplomatic environment where Somalia is caught between the competing interests of its partners.
Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia’s affairs is not limited to the bilateral treaty signed in Ankara. Ethiopia has also been involved in other initiatives aimed at influencing Somalia’s political landscape, often to ensure that Somalia remains under its sphere of influence. This includes providing military support, intelligence sharing, and even meddling in Somalia’s internal politics to install leaders sympathetic to Ethiopian interests. Such interference is not in the best interest of Somalia, as it undermines the country’s sovereignty, stability, and independence.
At the same time, Somalia’s relations with Egypt, Eritrea, the UAE, and Turkey complicate matters further. While these countries may offer economic or military assistance, they also have their own interests at play. Egypt, for example, has long been concerned about Ethiopia’s construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which threatens to reduce the flow of water to Egypt’s Nile River. Eritrea, too, has its own reasons for involvement, particularly concerning its long-standing rivalry with Ethiopia. The UAE and Turkey, meanwhile, have been involved in various infrastructure projects and military alliances, often with their own agendas in mind.
The result of these conflicting deals is a diplomatic nightmare for Somalia. The country risks alienating key regional partners while simultaneously exposing itself to the urges of powerful external actors. Somalia’s government, under President Hassan, must step carefully to avoid being manipulated by these competing interests and to ensure that Somalia’s sovereignty is protected.
The Risk of Internal Instability and Domestic Unrest
The potential consequences of Ethiopia’s increasing influence in Somalia are not just external. The internal instability within Somalia could be exacerbated by these controversial deals. As mentioned earlier, the Somali people have not forgotten the pain caused by Ethiopia’s previous intervention in Somalia, particularly the surviving victims at Mogadishu. Allowing Ethiopia to gain further influence in Somalia, especially over critical resources like the Red Sea coastline, would provoke significant unrest among the Somali population specifically at Mogadishu that felt added insult to their injuries.
Such a move could lead to widespread protests and even insurgencies, particularly in areas like Mogadishu, where many people still carry the scars of Ethiopia’s violent occupation. If President Hassan were to make concessions to Ethiopia that the Somali people see as a betrayal, it could spell the end of his presidency. A large-scale uprising against the government could destabilize Somalia further, leading to increased violence and political fragmentation.
In addition, Somalia’s internal divisions, based on clan lines, regional loyalties, and ideological differences, make it vulnerable to exploit external manipulation by Ethiopia and its partners. The presence of foreign powers with competing interests in Somalia only intensifies these divisions. If Ethiopia’s influence continues to grow, it could intensify these internal conflicts, leading to further fragmentation and instability.
Conclusion
President Hassan’s government finds itself in a precarious position, navigating a complex geopolitical landscape filled with conflicting interests and hidden agendas. Ethiopia, under the guise of friendship, fraternity, and cooperation, continues to pursue its expansionist goals in Somalia, particularly regarding access to the country’s strategic Red Sea coastline. While President Hassan may see the bilateral agreements with Ethiopia as a way to improve relations, the reality is that these deals come with significant risks.
Ethiopia’s past interventions in Somalia have left deep scars, and any move to allow Ethiopia further influence in Somalia’s affairs would likely lead to widespread unrest. The Somali people, particularly those in Mogadishu who severely suffered under Ethiopian occupation, would view such actions as a betrayal of their national sovereignty and those who sacrificed themselves to protect the nation from Ethiopian abusive invasion.
Moreover, President Hassan’s engagement in conflicting agreements with other regional powers adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. The risks of alienating key partners and provoking internal instability are high. President Hassan must carefully consider the long-term consequences of his actions and work to protect Somalia’s sovereignty, ensuring that the country’s interests are not sacrificed in the pursuit of short-term diplomatic gains.
Behind every deal and every handshake lies a deeper strategy, and in the case of Ethiopia, that strategy is one of expansionism and control. Somalia must remain vigilant, ensuring that it does not fall prey to Ethiopia’s ambitions or become a pawn in the game of regional power politics.
Dr. Said Mohamud (Sacim)
Chair of the Somali People’s Democratic Party
Saciidciise258@aol.com
