The recent agreement signed between Somalia and Ethiopia in Ankara, Turkey, under the mediation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has drawn attention to the multifaceted geopolitical dynamics in the Horn of Africa. While the deal was apparently framed as a step toward fostering better relations between the two nations, a closer analysis reveals Ethiopia’s underlying strategic motives, masked by diplomatic smiles and soft rhetoric.
Ethiopia’s goal in this agreement is not simply about improving ties with Somalia; rather, it involves leveraging this agreement to weaken the multilateral defense treaty Somalia signed with Egypt and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s long-term vision includes isolating these two regional adversaries and advancing its own geopolitical and strategic interests, even at Somalia’s expense.
Ethiopia’s Tactical Smiles: A Calculated Charm Offensive
Ethiopia’s diplomatic strategy centers on portraying itself as a cooperative and amicable neighbor. This charm offensive is aimed at convincing Somalia of Ethiopia’s alleged sincerity in respecting Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Through warm gestures and friendly rhetoric, Ethiopia seeks to win Somalia’s trust. However, this trust-building exercise is a calculated move intended to pave the way for Ethiopia to dismantle Somalia’s partnerships with Egypt and Eritrea.
The multilateral defense agreement between Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea represents a critical obstacle to Ethiopia’s regional ambitions. Ethiopia views Egypt as a primary adversary due to the ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, a project that has heightened tensions between the two nations. Eritrea, on the other hand, is seen as a rival due to long-standing territorial disputes and its unpredictable alliance patterns. For Ethiopia, breaking Somalia’s ties with these two countries would be a strategic triumph.
One Step Forward, Two Steps Backward: Ethiopia’s Pattern of Deception
Ethiopia employs a diplomatic tactic best described as “one step forward, two steps backward.” This approach involves offering concessions or friendly advances to Somalia to gain its trust, only to later reverse course when strategic objectives are met.
For example, Ethiopia may initially commit to honoring Somalia’s sovereignty and agreeing to closer bilateral ties. However, once Somalia appears ready to withdraw from its defense pact with Egypt and Eritrea, Ethiopia could withdraw its cooperation, reverting to hostile or indifferent policies. By then, the damage would already be done. Somalia’s ties with Egypt and Eritrea would be weakened, and trust between these nations irreparably harmed.
This pattern of calculated engagement followed by abrupt disengagement highlights Ethiopia’s lack of sincerity in pursuing long-term stability or partnership with Somalia. Instead, Ethiopia’s actions are driven by its desire to advance its own regional dominance, even at the cost of destabilizing its neighbors.
Somalia’s Strategic Vulnerability
If Somalia surrenders to Ethiopia’s diplomatic pressure and withdraws from its defense treaty with Egypt and Eritrea, the repercussions could be severe. Egypt and Eritrea would likely perceive Somalia as an unreliable partner, reducing their willingness to support Somalia in future conflicts or crises. This would leave Somalia more vulnerable to potential military aggression or coercion from Ethiopia in the future.
Moreover, Ethiopia’s true intentions extend beyond isolating Egypt and Eritrea. Recent reports suggest that Ethiopia has been lobbying for a military base on Somalia’s Red Sea coastline, a strategic waterway of immense importance. Ethiopia’s interest in this coastline is backed by partnerships with certain Gulf states, Israel, and other obscure foreign actors. These actors are reportedly incentivizing Ethiopia to provide cheap military forces for their regional conflicts, such as uprooting the Houthis in Yemen, in exchange for support in securing access to Somalia’s Red Sea ports.
This arrangement poses a significant threat to Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Allowing Ethiopia to establish a military presence on its coastline could set a dangerous precedent, further eroding Somalia’s autonomy and exposing it to foreign interference.
The Role of External Actors
The involvement of external actors in Ethiopia’s strategy adds another layer of complication. Gulf states, Israel, and other foreign partners appear to be leveraging Ethiopia’s ambitions to advance their own regional agendas. These actors view Ethiopia as a convenient ally for achieving short-term objectives, such as stabilizing Yemen through military intervention. In return, they are willing to assist Ethiopia in securing a foothold in Somalia’s Red Sea region, providing financial and logistical support for port infrastructure development and lobbying on Ethiopia’s behalf.
This transactional relationship between Ethiopia and its foreign partners underscores the broader geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa. For Somalia, this means navigating a complex web of alliances and rivalries, where its sovereignty and national interests are often treated as secondary to the strategic ambitions of more powerful actors.
A Fragile Agreement
The agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia, while significant, is unlikely to be long-lasting. Its durability is contingent on several factors, including the political stability of Turkey, which played a key role in mediating the deal. Should a regime change occur in Turkey, Ethiopia may quickly abandon its commitments, reverting to its historically antagonistic posture toward Somalia.
Additionally, Ethiopia’s history of reneging on agreements raises doubts about its commitment to the Ankara deal. Past experiences have shown that Ethiopia is willing to abandon diplomatic agreements when they no longer serve its interests. This pattern of behavior underscores the importance of Somalia maintaining a cautious and vigilant approach in its dealings with Ethiopia.
Recommendations for Somalia
Given Ethiopia’s track record and the strategic implications of the Ankara agreement, Somalia must adopt a proactive and cautious approach to safeguard its national interests. Key recommendations include:
Strengthen Regional Alliances: Somalia should prioritize maintaining strong ties with Egypt and Eritrea, as these partnerships are crucial for counterbalancing Ethiopia’s influence. Diplomatic efforts should focus on reassuring Egypt and Eritrea of Somalia’s commitment to the multilateral defense treaty.
Demand Transparency: Somalia must insist on clear and transparent terms in any agreements with Ethiopia. This includes establishing mechanisms for monitoring and verifying Ethiopia’s compliance with its commitments.
Protect Sovereignty: Somalia should categorically reject any proposals that compromise its sovereignty, such as allowing foreign military bases on its Red Sea coastline. Instead, Somalia should explore partnerships that respect its autonomy and promote mutual benefit.
Leverage International Support: Last diplomatic resort Somalia should engage with international organizations and allies to draw attention to Ethiopia’s destabilizing actions. By highlighting Ethiopia’s behavior on the global stage, Somalia can garner support for its position and counter Ethiopia’s narrative.
Strengthen Domestic Institutions: Finally, Somalia must invest in building strong and resilient institutions capable of withstanding external pressures. This includes enhancing its diplomatic corps, strengthening its military, and fostering economic development to reduce reliance on foreign aid and partnerships.
Conclusion
The recent agreement between Somalia and Ethiopia highlights the complex and often duplicitous nature of regional diplomacy in the Horn of Africa. While Ethiopia presents itself as a friendly neighbor committed to fostering better relations, its actions reveal a strategic agenda aimed at isolating Egypt and Eritrea, undermining Somalia’s sovereignty, and advancing its own geopolitical ambitions.
For Somalia, the stakes are high. Falling victim to Ethiopia’s calculated strategy could weaken its regional alliances, compromise its territorial integrity, and expose it to greater foreign interference. To navigate these challenges, Somalia must remain vigilant, proactive, and unwavering in its commitment to safeguarding its national interests.
Behind Ethiopia’s smiles and soft words lies a strategy—a dangerous game of power and influence that Somalia cannot afford to ignore.
Dr. Said Mohamud (Sacim)
Chair of the Somali People’s Democratic Party
Saciidciise258@aol.com
