The Somali government has appropriately taken several important measures in response to address Ethiopia’s increasing military aggressions and actions that are perceived as a violation of Somali sovereignty. Key measures include:
Diplomatic Push: Somalia has actively engaged in international bodies such as the United Nations (UN), the African Union (AU), the Arab League, and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) to seek defensive support and to apply pressure on Ethiopia to adhere to International Laws and to respect Somalia’s territorial integrity.
Recalling Ambassadors: In response to Ethiopia’s deal agreements with the breakaway Somaliland Northwest region, which grants Ethiopia access to an illegal port and potentially a military base, Somalia has recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia, condemning the deal as a violation of its sovereignty.
Expelling Ethiopian Forces: Somalia plans to expel Ethiopian forces from its territories, operating both within and outside the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), following the mission’s mandate expires in December 2024. This reflects increasing tensions over Ethiopian military involvement in interventions of internal affairs in Somali territories.
Strengthening Security Partnerships: Somalia is seeking to negotiate extending the presence of regional forces from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, and Djibouti under a new arrangement to maintain addressing the stability of internal security challenges and as well as aimed to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence.
These actions reflect part of Somalia’s broader strategy to assert control over its territories and to counter external violations that undermine its sovereignty. However, the situation remains persistent, given Ethiopia’s malevolent strategic interests in the Horn of Africa region and its manipulative turbulences for the ongoing regional instability, further measures may be required.
This situation highlights the intricate regional dynamics involving Somalia, and Ethiopia, and their historically strained geopolitical relationships. To address such issues, the Somali government’s response should continue to pursue a drastic approach that combines political, diplomatic, military, and legal measures. Drastic actions that a government should take in such situations include:
Potential Drastic Measures Somalia Should Take
To address Ethiopia’s transgressions and protect Somali sovereignty, the Somali government should consider the following drastic measures:
Diplomatic Protests and Appeals: Officially lodging complaints with Ethiopia through diplomatic channels, escalating the issue to international bodies like the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN), and requesting fact-finding missions and international intervention to condemn Ethiopia’s deliberate aggression and territorial violations.
Border Security and Military Posture: Strengthening border security to prevent unauthorized crossings by foreign forces, and deploying Somali National Army (SNA) troops to protect the sovereignty of Somali territories and prevent incursions, as well as seeking regional and international partnerships to reinforce Somalia’s defense capabilities.
Reducing Ethiopian Influence in Future Peacekeeping Missions: Cautiously reevaluate Ethiopia’s role in future African peacekeeping operations and similar international frameworks, considering its precedent experiences of transgressions against Somali sovereignty, and ensuring that future missions should not undermine maintaining neutrality and not compromise host state’s sovereignty.
Legal, Diplomatic, and Political Pressure: Pursuing the issue to international legal actions through the International Court of Justice (ICJ) or other similar relevant bodies to address Ethiopia’s sovereignty violations, and garnering support from other states to apply political and economic pressure, and as well as mobilize international support to impose potential economic or political sanctions on Ethiopia to deter further interference.
Engaging Domestic Support: Strengthening national unity and counter foreign interference by building national alliances with Somali nationalist groups, including patriotic political factions, and effectively encouraging reconciliation and integration efforts to reduce vulnerabilities and as well as prosecuting those allied with external enemies, by cracking down on individuals or factions that support Ethiopian influence or undermine Somali sovereignty.
Seeking New Economic and Strategic Alliances: Strengthening alliances and ties with neighboring states that respect Somali sovereignty, while seeking new economic and military support from partners of external allies that are both inside and outside of Somalia’s current reconstruction efforts to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence.
Potential Drastic Outcomes of the Conflict
The escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia could lead to several drastic outcomes, depending on how both countries and involved stakeholders manage the situation. Here are some potential drastic outcomes:
Increased Regional Instability and Military Escalation: If all diplomatic measures fail, the conflict could escalate into direct military confrontations between Somali forces and Ethiopian troops or with their allied militias, destabilizing the region and strengthening armed clan-based faction militias in both countries, which would deepen internal divisions, and weakening their already fragile governments, while enabling predatory external influences.
International Intervention and Peacekeeping Mandate redefinition: International organizations and partnership actors may intervene by redefining peacekeeping purposes and mandates, potentially sidelining Ethiopia in favor of other neutral forces in the region under a future UN-backed framework. There could also be the imposition of economic or diplomatic sanctions that might impose pressure on Ethiopia to prevent further violations of Somali territorial sovereignty.
Geopolitical Realignment: Somalia should strengthen closer alliances with regional powers and effective actors of the international partners, counterbalancing itself from Ethiopia’s influence. Ethiopia’s involvement in Somali regional states could lead to a rift between the Somali Federal Government and its member states, further entrenching the secessionist, rebellious movements or regions, and complicating efforts to preserve Somali unity.
Complete Breakdown in Relations: A complete breakdown in relations between Somalia and Ethiopia could lead to long-term hostility, undermining cooperative regional and international initiatives, disrupting cooperation in anti-terrorism efforts like the fight against Al-Shabaab, and destabilizing the Horn of Africa.
The future outcome of Somalia-Ethiopia conflicts will depend on internal Somali unity, sincere international obligations, and the worsening of Ethiopia’s own internal troubles that weaken its hegemonic ambitions and force voluntarily its willingness to respect Somali sovereignty. If poorly managed, this dispute could significantly destabilize the entire region for years to come.
The conclusion of the escalating tension between Somalia and Ethiopia could unfold in several ways, depending on how both countries and involved stakeholders manage the situation, demonstrating that if the Somali government and international stakeholders do not act decisively to eliminate the blatant aggression of Ethiopia into the Somali soil, the conflict can escalate uncontrollable, destabilizing the region and leading to unpredictable consequences.
Dr. Said Mohamud (Sacim)Â
Chair of the Somali People’s Democratic Party
Saciidciise258@aol.com
