The Turkish government is currently facilitating mediation between Somalia and Ethiopia, with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan playing an essential role in shuttle diplomacy to bridge the gap between the two nations. This mediation has become critical in the wake of escalating tensions sparked by a recent agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland—a breakaway region of Somalia.
In the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Ethiopia was granted access to the Red Sea via Somaliland’s northern coast in exchange for recognizing Somaliland as an independent state. This move was perceived by Somalia as a direct threat to its territorial integrity, sovereignty, and unity. The agreement has significantly strained relations between the two countries, with leaders from both sides trading hostile statements and accusing each other of hostility. Diplomatic engagement between Somalia and Ethiopia has come to a standstill, with both nations seeking international support to validate their grievances.
Ethiopia, home to over 120 million people, has argued that it requires access to the sea for economic and strategic reasons. The Ethiopian government has conditioned its support for normalization on Somalia granting it access to the sea. Conversely, Somalia has demanded that Ethiopia annul the agreement with Somaliland before any normalization of relations can occur. Somalia fears that Ethiopia’s aggressive stance and demands for sea access might be a prelude to more serious territorial ambitions, including the potential annexation of Somali coastal areas.
Somalia’s reluctance to accommodate Ethiopia’s demands stems from historical grievances. The Somali population has long been affected by the colonial-era borders that unjustly divided Somali territory, leading to two bloody wars with Ethiopia in 1964 and 1977. The echoes of these conflicts still resonate, making any perceived advance on Somali territory a sensitive and contentious issue.
In the context of these tensions, the role of Turkish mediation is crucial. Turkey has strategic interests in the Horn of Africa, viewing the region as a gateway for trade and infrastructure development. Its involvement aims to stabilize the area and enhance its geopolitical influence. For Ethiopia, gaining access to the Somali coast is seen as a significant strategic advantage, both for economic reasons and as a means of alleviating domestic pressures related to economic hardship and civil unrest.
However, Ethiopia’s approach—leveraging its negotiations to secure sea access—has been criticized as aggressive and coercive. Many view Ethiopia’s tactics as an attempt to pressure Somalia into concessions under the guise of diplomatic negotiation. Such behavior has led to accusations of bullying, with concerns that Ethiopia may use its newly acquired access to establish a military base or seaport of its own, further exacerbating tensions and suspicions.
For Somalia, navigating these complex negotiations requires a strategic approach. While Somalia needs to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity, it also needs to consider the broader geopolitical landscape and the potential benefits of a mediated resolution. The Turkish mediation presents an opportunity for Somalia to engage in dialogue with Ethiopia under a neutral facilitator, potentially leading to a more balanced and peaceful resolution.
The key for Somalia is to negotiate from a position of strength while remaining open to compromise. However, offering Ethiopia access to the sea in exchange for the annulment of the MOU with Somaliland may not be a viable pathway to de-escalate tensions and could instead exacerbate security issues for future Somali generations. Such a compromise must be approached with caution to ensure that Ethiopia’s access does not lead to further territorial claims or strategic disadvantages for Somalia. Any agreement must be carefully scrutinized to protect Somalia’s sovereignty and long-term stability.
If Somalia remains suspicious of the political games played by Turkey and Ethiopia, it should also be cautious about the potential ramifications of any deal. Both Turkey and Ethiopia have their own agendas, and Somalia must ensure that any agreement reached does not disproportionately benefit the other parties at its own expense. Failure to achieve a fair and balanced deal could have severe consequences for Somalia’s future stability and regional relations.
In conclusion, Somalia should approach the normalization of relations with Ethiopia through Turkish mediation with a strategic mindset. While it is not obligatory to address Ethiopia’s demands for sea access, Somalia must safeguard its sovereignty and future territorial integrity. Engaging in constructive dialogue with peaceful coexistence and seeking a mutually beneficial resolution will be key to achieving long-term peace and stability in the region.
Dr. Said Mohamud (Sacim)Â
Chair of the Somali People’s Democratic Party
Saciidciise258@aol.com
