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Somalia Political Deadlock: is it Endogenous or Exogenous?

As Somalis, we misunderstood and misused the federal system as longest we share everything incorporates religion, culture, ethnic, language, color and everything. But this it doesn’t mean that we runaway the federalism. We took this new emerging system legally in 2004, in Embagathi conference. Currently, our provisional constitution which has been adopted in 2012 through national assembly denotes and clarifies especially article 1, and says “Somalia is a federal, sovereign and democratic republic founded on inclusive representation of the people, a multiparty system and social justice”. Due to this, federalism is legit.

A view of some: Federalism is a new form of partition to Somali homeland

Some of the people are skeptic in federal system, and they say, this system is not serving the national interest, social cohesiveness and the solidarity. Additionally, they say, this system is contributing dismantle and downplays the unity amongst our people. Moreover, they narrate we are currently encountering the legacy of this federal system. Because now, there is outstanding and big difference among the five states and federal leaders. So, we can predict the destination of this system which ultimately leads us to balkanization.

Federalism: Fizzle outs some people and beams some others!

Although there is obvious antagonize towards this federal system, but there is also an immense kudos from the people. Because, they justify that federalism facilitates and enhances the check and balance, transparency and accountability among the two levels of the government namely, federal and states.

Federalism: Short time Pain, but Long time Gain!

Many countries around the world were taken this federal system and they benefited it including USA, GERMANY, INDIA and plenty others. In our context, it is too early to say plainly federalism is against and dilutes our unity and solidarity. At the beginning, yes it is a quite tricky and an intractable this system, but in the long time, it has kudos legacy. Furthermore, in every transition have its own challenges, because you are departing from an old system and joining a new one. So, there is a need to wait and observe and avoid at the same time prejudice.

Federalism: Abnegates rubber stamp Policy and augments collaboration

During the military era in 1969 -1991, everything was tailored in Mogadishu. For instance, when the person completes his/her high school, they come to Mogadishu in order to join a university. When somebody needs a decent hospital, they use to come in Mogadishu. When a person wants to get the passport, they tend to come in Mogadishu. And this intrusive action propels the Mogadishu city to become overlay and overcrowd area which ultimately leads to city of permanent struggle!  Article 53 denotes “International Negotiations” and this articles onus to consult the federal government with the states the issues related: Foreign Aid, Trade, Treaties or other major issues related to international agreements. So, this system boosts decentralizing the power and dispersing the authority to the regional states level in order to avoid dictatorship and fiefdom.

Political futile in Somalia: Naysayers Welcomes and the Crowd Freaks out!

The five regional states that we have so far were formed in different circumstances. Puntland was formed before the federal government. Jubbaland was formed in 2013 with hard challenges. At the initial phase, the federal government was challenged the leadership of the Jubbaland, but after several talks and bargaining, the federal government recognized this new state and its leadership.

Southwest state encountered at the beginning the same challenge which Jubbaland confronted. Because the federal leaders were meddled the process of the formation. Explicitly, the top leaders of the federal government were supporting and giving hand the contesting powers of that state. Galmudug was supported fully by the federal government, and Abdikarim Gulled, who is one of the Former President’s solid wings, becomes the first president in Galmudug state. Hirshabelle, the youngest federal member state was given a subtle support by the federal government. The other painful is, there is a hope related to meet 2020 vision of One Man One Vote. This ambition is quite becoming fancy ambition! Because, this haphazard and disarray situation is not reflecting that hope. Because the security is getting worst, the political instability is deepening and the time is coming up while there is no preparedness for holding 2020 election

On the other hand, when this new intrusive conflict erupts, some previous and current politicians welcomed, and they want to leverage it. And some of them went the regional states in order to deepen and worst the conflict among the federal and regional leaders for sack of political and personal interests.

Populist Government dwindles it’s overstretch and widely public kudos!

This government which was elected in 8 February 2017, received at the beginning the highest public beam, especially the public gave extraordinary support the head of state his Excellency Farmajo

Because, Farmajo did something good previously when he was the Prime Minister just six months only when the need for a good leader was its peak in 2011. His remarkable leadership was Included:  logistical, technical and moral support of the Somali National Army, Public Engagement and many others. But later on, after the current government did some mistakes including the submission of Qalbidhagax to a long standing enemy Ethiopia, imprison of renowned opposition leader A. Abdishakur, security fragility and dynamic conflict among the Federal and Regional leaders, the crowd is disappointing day after day! Due to the public extravagant expectations from this government. And the expectations are becoming the other way round and the result seems blowback!

 Michael Keating rebukes the Somali leaders!

The outgoing Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Somalia and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia denounce and demonize the Somali political leaders. The federal government labels that, there are corruption, security fragility and lack of flat justice among the federal institutions. While, he labels state leaders that, their opposition against the federal leaders is not based with patriotism manner.

The Hotspot and the Underlying Causes of the resilient Conflict!

After all, the root causes of the dynamic conflict and political instability amongst the federal and regional leaders is the provisional constitution which was adopted in 2012 through National Assembly which entails national referendum. Additionally, the constitution only clarifies the basic principles of formation of the federal member states, but is lack how to share the Natural Resources. Moreover, not yet established the Inter-State Commission which denotes Article 111F of the constitution. Some powers of this Commission are: – facilitating the intergovernmental coordination and cooperation among the federal government and the governments of the federal member states. Also, this article indicates, resolve any administrative, political or jurisdictional disputes between the federal government and one or more governments of the federal member states or between the governments of federal member states.

Recommendations

  • There is a drastic need for Constitution Review
  • There is an immense entail for Establishing Inter-State Commission which solves the dynamic political disagreement among the Federal and Regional leaders
  • To establish Anti-Corruption Commission as mentioned in the constitution article 111C, and this commission’s mandate is :- to investigate allegations of corruption that implicate the public sector
  • The states leaders should accept the pledge of the president to sit the negotiation table in order to thrash out and sweep up the conflict
  • The federal government should offer further concession so as to reach lasting peace and agreement among the federal and regional leaders
  • To stay away and stop demonizing each other and weaponizing the information through media
  • We need to emancipate our country from the outside meddling
  • To bring all the federal and states brethren together because they are in one roof
  • To reach compromise for sack of betterment of the society
  • To reach lasting agreement , because it is superb

 

At the end of the day, there is a humongous demand for Internal Solution for Internal Problem!

Anwar Abdifatah Bashir ( Freelance Journalist and Independent Researcher)

Email: anwarcade100@gmail.com

Office Network Allbanaadir.com
Nairobi-Kenya
Allbanaadir@live.com

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